Results April 6: Government Shutdown, Bossypants, and Vegetarianism

Q1: Will the US Government "shut down" on Friday? (Yes/No)

This one could have gone either way, but 60% of you accurately predicted that the government would not "shut down". Also, those of you identified as "experts" on this question by the Truth Serum algorithms also predicted "no."  However, the spread between the top and bottom score was relatively narrow, reinforcing that this really could have gone either way. Perhaps this is something we can incorporate as a sort of confidence level.

All of you who predicted "no" will get +1 point, and the top experts will get +2 points. The top experts not only chose the answer that the Truth Serum algorithms said was correct (and was correct in real life), they also were closest in predicting the percentage of respondents that would agree. Curiously, all the experts on this question are women:

Experts:
Shosh    +2
Mom     +2 
Maura   +2
Claire    +2
Sarah    +2

The men who correctly answered this question tended to be over-confident in predicting how many of you would agree with them, and therefore received penalties. The most overconfident award goes to a certain investment banker, who correctly said "no", but predicted 99% of you would agree.

Q2: Which of these newly released books will be ranked highest on the Amazon best seller list on Monday 4/11? (Bossypants, Hungry Girl 300 under 300, Onward: How Starbucks Fought for its Life Without Losing Its Sole, Malcolm X).

Amazon / Pop. Vote  / BTS /  Book Title
3rd    /   63%   /     1st         Bossypants by Tina Fey
6th     /   21%   /     2nd       Hungry Girl 300 under 300
22nd   /   0%     /     N/A       Malcolm X: A Life of Reinvention
58th   /   16%   /     3rd        Onward: How Starbucks Fought for its Life Without Losing Its Sole

The surprise on this one is that no one voted for Malcolm X, which is in 22nd place on the Amazon best seller list, while 16% of you voted for the Starbucks book, which is in 58th place. I couldn't calculate the BTS score for Malcolm X, since it received no votes. I probably should not have given Bossypants as one of the options, because even at the time it had a commanding lead. Regardless, this was another question where there was agreement between the popular vote, the BTS filtered results, and what actually happened.

Everyone who said Bossypants will get +1, and the experts will get +2:
Jared  +2
Alex  +2
GP    +2

Q3: What is the strongest argument in favor of vegetarianism?
     a: I don't think there are any strong arguments
     b: Consumption of meat is unhealthy
     c: Cruelty to animals should be avoided
     d: Industrial production of meat is harmful to the environment

Here the popular vote answer and the BTS expert answer are different. By popular vote, the two most compelling reasons are 1) cruelty to animals, and 2) meat is unhealthy.  But by the BTS-filtered results, the two strongest reasons are that 1) meat is unhealthy, and 2) it hurts the environment. (Cruelty to animals is a distant third.)

From my experience as a vegetarian for nineteen years, I believe that most omnivores are indeed more moved by the arguments BTS identified as the strongest. I believe this is because these are the arguments that affect you (your health, your environment) rather than only affecting animals. In fact, on the Vegetarian Times list of reasons to go vegetarian, sparing animals is the 13th of 16 reasons.

Everyone who said consumption of meat is unhealthy will get +1. The top experts, who will get +2, are:
Jared +2  (a bonafide vegetarian)
Seth   +2   
Mom  +2 


This is not to say that avoiding cruelty to animals is not a good reason to be vegetarian. (It is my primary reason). Rather, these results suggest that it is not the strongest argument as perceived by a primarily omnivore audience.