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Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Results April 6: Government Shutdown, Bossypants, and Vegetarianism
Q1: Will the US Government "shut down" on Friday? (Yes/No)
This one could have gone either way, but 60% of you accurately predicted that the government would not "shut down". Also, those of you identified as "experts" on this question by the Truth Serum algorithms also predicted "no." However, the spread between the top and bottom score was relatively narrow, reinforcing that this really could have gone either way. Perhaps this is something we can incorporate as a sort of confidence level.
All of you who predicted "no" will get +1 point, and the top experts will get +2 points. The top experts not only chose the answer that the Truth Serum algorithms said was correct (and was correct in real life), they also were closest in predicting the percentage of respondents that would agree. Curiously, all the experts on this question are women:
Experts:
Shosh +2
Mom +2
Maura +2
Claire +2
Sarah +2
The men who correctly answered this question tended to be over-confident in predicting how many of you would agree with them, and therefore received penalties. The most overconfident award goes to a certain investment banker, who correctly said "no", but predicted 99% of you would agree.
Q2: Which of these newly released books will be ranked highest on the Amazon best seller list on Monday 4/11? (Bossypants, Hungry Girl 300 under 300, Onward: How Starbucks Fought for its Life Without Losing Its Sole, Malcolm X).
Amazon / Pop. Vote / BTS / Book Title
3rd / 63% / 1st Bossypants by Tina Fey
6th / 21% / 2nd Hungry Girl 300 under 300
22nd / 0% / N/A Malcolm X: A Life of Reinvention
58th / 16% / 3rd Onward: How Starbucks Fought for its Life Without Losing Its Sole
The surprise on this one is that no one voted for Malcolm X, which is in 22nd place on the Amazon best seller list, while 16% of you voted for the Starbucks book, which is in 58th place. I couldn't calculate the BTS score for Malcolm X, since it received no votes. I probably should not have given Bossypants as one of the options, because even at the time it had a commanding lead. Regardless, this was another question where there was agreement between the popular vote, the BTS filtered results, and what actually happened.
Everyone who said Bossypants will get +1, and the experts will get +2:
Jared +2
Alex +2
GP +2
Q3: What is the strongest argument in favor of vegetarianism?
a: I don't think there are any strong arguments
b: Consumption of meat is unhealthy
c: Cruelty to animals should be avoided
d: Industrial production of meat is harmful to the environment
Here the popular vote answer and the BTS expert answer are different. By popular vote, the two most compelling reasons are 1) cruelty to animals, and 2) meat is unhealthy. But by the BTS-filtered results, the two strongest reasons are that 1) meat is unhealthy, and 2) it hurts the environment. (Cruelty to animals is a distant third.)
From my experience as a vegetarian for nineteen years, I believe that most omnivores are indeed more moved by the arguments BTS identified as the strongest. I believe this is because these are the arguments that affect you (your health, your environment) rather than only affecting animals. In fact, on the Vegetarian Times list of reasons to go vegetarian, sparing animals is the 13th of 16 reasons.
Everyone who said consumption of meat is unhealthy will get +1. The top experts, who will get +2, are:
Jared +2 (a bonafide vegetarian)
Seth +2
Mom +2
This is not to say that avoiding cruelty to animals is not a good reason to be vegetarian. (It is my primary reason). Rather, these results suggest that it is not the strongest argument as perceived by a primarily omnivore audience.
This one could have gone either way, but 60% of you accurately predicted that the government would not "shut down". Also, those of you identified as "experts" on this question by the Truth Serum algorithms also predicted "no." However, the spread between the top and bottom score was relatively narrow, reinforcing that this really could have gone either way. Perhaps this is something we can incorporate as a sort of confidence level.
All of you who predicted "no" will get +1 point, and the top experts will get +2 points. The top experts not only chose the answer that the Truth Serum algorithms said was correct (and was correct in real life), they also were closest in predicting the percentage of respondents that would agree. Curiously, all the experts on this question are women:
Experts:
Shosh +2
Mom +2
Maura +2
Claire +2
Sarah +2
The men who correctly answered this question tended to be over-confident in predicting how many of you would agree with them, and therefore received penalties. The most overconfident award goes to a certain investment banker, who correctly said "no", but predicted 99% of you would agree.
Q2: Which of these newly released books will be ranked highest on the Amazon best seller list on Monday 4/11? (Bossypants, Hungry Girl 300 under 300, Onward: How Starbucks Fought for its Life Without Losing Its Sole, Malcolm X).
Amazon / Pop. Vote / BTS / Book Title
3rd / 63% / 1st Bossypants by Tina Fey
6th / 21% / 2nd Hungry Girl 300 under 300
22nd / 0% / N/A Malcolm X: A Life of Reinvention
58th / 16% / 3rd Onward: How Starbucks Fought for its Life Without Losing Its Sole
The surprise on this one is that no one voted for Malcolm X, which is in 22nd place on the Amazon best seller list, while 16% of you voted for the Starbucks book, which is in 58th place. I couldn't calculate the BTS score for Malcolm X, since it received no votes. I probably should not have given Bossypants as one of the options, because even at the time it had a commanding lead. Regardless, this was another question where there was agreement between the popular vote, the BTS filtered results, and what actually happened.
Everyone who said Bossypants will get +1, and the experts will get +2:
Jared +2
Alex +2
GP +2
Q3: What is the strongest argument in favor of vegetarianism?
a: I don't think there are any strong arguments
b: Consumption of meat is unhealthy
c: Cruelty to animals should be avoided
d: Industrial production of meat is harmful to the environment
Here the popular vote answer and the BTS expert answer are different. By popular vote, the two most compelling reasons are 1) cruelty to animals, and 2) meat is unhealthy. But by the BTS-filtered results, the two strongest reasons are that 1) meat is unhealthy, and 2) it hurts the environment. (Cruelty to animals is a distant third.)
From my experience as a vegetarian for nineteen years, I believe that most omnivores are indeed more moved by the arguments BTS identified as the strongest. I believe this is because these are the arguments that affect you (your health, your environment) rather than only affecting animals. In fact, on the Vegetarian Times list of reasons to go vegetarian, sparing animals is the 13th of 16 reasons.
Everyone who said consumption of meat is unhealthy will get +1. The top experts, who will get +2, are:
Jared +2 (a bonafide vegetarian)
Seth +2
Mom +2
This is not to say that avoiding cruelty to animals is not a good reason to be vegetarian. (It is my primary reason). Rather, these results suggest that it is not the strongest argument as perceived by a primarily omnivore audience.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Game Board 3 (April 6, 2011) available
The new game board is ready, click here. It will be available only through Sunday. Good luck!
Adjusted game points
Someone raised a good point. He chose the winning answer, but didn't get any points, because his prediction of other people was wrong, and the penalty reduced his overall score.
So, I've adjusted the points. From now on, you get 1 point for choosing the right answer, and 2 points if you were a high scorer according to the BTS algorithm. (You can choose the right answer and still not be a high scorer, if your prediction of the other participants is wrong).
I re-did the points from game 2 (March 27th) and updated the scoreboard in the right hand column. (so some of you have more points now!). This does not change the way I use the algorithm or score the actual answers; it only affects the points for game.
So, I've adjusted the points. From now on, you get 1 point for choosing the right answer, and 2 points if you were a high scorer according to the BTS algorithm. (You can choose the right answer and still not be a high scorer, if your prediction of the other participants is wrong).
I re-did the points from game 2 (March 27th) and updated the scoreboard in the right hand column. (so some of you have more points now!). This does not change the way I use the algorithm or score the actual answers; it only affects the points for game.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Results 3/27/11: Box Office, Groupon, and GOP candidates
1) Which of these movies opening April 1st will perform best at the box office? (Source Code, Hop, Insidious, Super, Rubber)
Once again popular opinion was wrong! This is how you voted:
Source Code 44%
Hop 30%
Insidious 22%
When I apply the Bayesian Truth Serum algorithm, though, a different prediction emerges:
Hop 1st place
Source Code 2nd place
Insidious 3rd place
And in real life, Hop indeed was a skip and a jump ahead of Source Code. Here is what really happened:
Hop $38 MM
Source Code $15 MM
Insidious $13 MM
In other words, BTS was again more accurate than the popular vote in predicting the box office hit this weekend. (I will admit my own surprise that a rabbit pooping jelly beans beat out “a soldier who wakes up in the body of an unknown man and discovers he's part of a mission to find the bomber of a Chicago commuter train”.)
Congrats to the winning players:
Top Scorers:
GP +2
Maura +2
Reebs +1
Claire +1
2) In December, Groupon turned down a $6B buyout offer from Google. Will Groupon sell for more than $6B in the next three years? (Yes, No)
Sorry Groupon, bad news: the popular vote and the filtered BTS results agree, the answer is “no.” 57% of you said no, and the algorithms supports that as well.
Congrats to the top scorers on this question, in an eight-way tie:
Novci +2
Dee +2
Mom +2
Joel +2
SSDS +2
Maura +2
Sarah +2
gleshinsky +2
Of course, we may not know the real life result for some time.
3) Who is the most likely to be the next to formally announce that they are running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012?
In this case again, BTS and the popular vote agree that Romney is most likely to be the next to formally announce his candidacy. That’s where the agreement ends though, as Huckabee was second place in the popular vote, but ranked 3rd in the BTS ranking (tied with Bachmann).
Candidate.......Popular Vote........ BTS Rank
Romney 43% 1st
Huckabee 18% 3rd
Pawlenty 11% 2nd
Palin 11% 7th
Giuliani 7% 5th
Gingrinch 7% 5th
Bachmann 4% 3rd
Top Scorers:
Elena +2
UriBraun +1
Alex +1
It seems that my respondents are heavily concentrated in Massachusetts, which may have skewed the results. Part of the benefit of using these algorithms is that it should correct somewhat for a non-representative sample, but in this case there may have been an overwhelming number of Bay Staters.
Once again popular opinion was wrong! This is how you voted:
Source Code 44%
Hop 30%
Insidious 22%
When I apply the Bayesian Truth Serum algorithm, though, a different prediction emerges:
Hop 1st place
Source Code 2nd place
Insidious 3rd place
And in real life, Hop indeed was a skip and a jump ahead of Source Code. Here is what really happened:
Hop $38 MM
Source Code $15 MM
Insidious $13 MM
In other words, BTS was again more accurate than the popular vote in predicting the box office hit this weekend. (I will admit my own surprise that a rabbit pooping jelly beans beat out “a soldier who wakes up in the body of an unknown man and discovers he's part of a mission to find the bomber of a Chicago commuter train”.)
Congrats to the winning players:
Top Scorers:
GP +2
Maura +2
Reebs +1
Claire +1
2) In December, Groupon turned down a $6B buyout offer from Google. Will Groupon sell for more than $6B in the next three years? (Yes, No)
Sorry Groupon, bad news: the popular vote and the filtered BTS results agree, the answer is “no.” 57% of you said no, and the algorithms supports that as well.
Congrats to the top scorers on this question, in an eight-way tie:
Novci +2
Dee +2
Mom +2
Joel +2
SSDS +2
Maura +2
Sarah +2
gleshinsky +2
Of course, we may not know the real life result for some time.
3) Who is the most likely to be the next to formally announce that they are running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012?
In this case again, BTS and the popular vote agree that Romney is most likely to be the next to formally announce his candidacy. That’s where the agreement ends though, as Huckabee was second place in the popular vote, but ranked 3rd in the BTS ranking (tied with Bachmann).
Candidate.......Popular Vote........ BTS Rank
Romney 43% 1st
Huckabee 18% 3rd
Pawlenty 11% 2nd
Palin 11% 7th
Giuliani 7% 5th
Gingrinch 7% 5th
Bachmann 4% 3rd
Top Scorers:
Elena +2
UriBraun +1
Alex +1
It seems that my respondents are heavily concentrated in Massachusetts, which may have skewed the results. Part of the benefit of using these algorithms is that it should correct somewhat for a non-representative sample, but in this case there may have been an overwhelming number of Bay Staters.
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