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Sunday, March 27, 2011
Results from March 13, 2011
Thanks very much to the first group of participants. Here are the results from round one, which started on March 13, 2011. I hope you find them interesting! Don’t worry if you didn’t make the top scorers list below or get a chance to play; click here to go to this week's new gameboard.
I scored each respondent using the Bayesian Truth Serum algorithms. With this method, your response is weighted more heavily if you demonstrate understanding of the crowd’s thinking, for the purpose of identifying who has special insight (or “insider” information).
1. How much longer will Muammar el-Qaddafi stay in power in Libya?
Top scorers on this question:
UriBraun +2 expert point
Derek +2 expert point
Novci +2 expert point
Hammy +2 expert point
The top scorers on this question disagree with the majority opinion. Most of you (56%) think that Qaddafi will stay in power less than one year. History may prove you right (we’ll check on this in another 50 weeks), but our top scoring experts on this question have a more cynical view. They correctly forecast that most people think Qaddafi will fall quickly, but they themselves think it will take several years.
In the two weeks since you answered this question there have been further developments, namely Western led aerial bombardments and the establishment of a no fly zone, which has enabled rebel advances. The west, however, seems to have ruled out ground forces. The US enforced a no-fly-zone over northern Iraq that lasted ~12 years (1991 – 2003), so it does seem possible that our four experts are correct and Qaddafi will cling to reduced power for some time to come.
2. Which of these 5 top-grossing movies is most worth seeing?
Top scorers on this question:
Nat +2 points
Alex +2 points
UriBraun +2 points
Most of you (62%) forecast The Adjustment Bureau as the movie most worth seeing, and only 19% of you chose Rango. But, using our Bayesian Truth Serum algorithm, our top experts were those who chose Rango. And it seems that our experts got it right! 88% of critics gave Rango a positive review, compared to only 60% for The Adjustment Bureau, according to RottenTomatoes.com. Furthermore, Rango has brought in $15.1 MM at the box office so far, compared to only $5.8 MM for TAB.
3. Which of these medium-seeded basketball teams will get the farthest in the NCAA championship? UCLA, Temple, Washington, Texas A&M, George Mason.
This question is harder to analyze, because four of the five mid-ranked attained exactly one victory, and one team, Texas A&M, achieved none. Our experts were betting on Temple, but they lost to San Diego State in their second game by 7 points. So let’s scrap this question, since it doesn’t really tell us anything.
I scored each respondent using the Bayesian Truth Serum algorithms. With this method, your response is weighted more heavily if you demonstrate understanding of the crowd’s thinking, for the purpose of identifying who has special insight (or “insider” information).
1. How much longer will Muammar el-Qaddafi stay in power in Libya?
Top scorers on this question:
UriBraun +2 expert point
Derek +2 expert point
Novci +2 expert point
Hammy +2 expert point
The top scorers on this question disagree with the majority opinion. Most of you (56%) think that Qaddafi will stay in power less than one year. History may prove you right (we’ll check on this in another 50 weeks), but our top scoring experts on this question have a more cynical view. They correctly forecast that most people think Qaddafi will fall quickly, but they themselves think it will take several years.
In the two weeks since you answered this question there have been further developments, namely Western led aerial bombardments and the establishment of a no fly zone, which has enabled rebel advances. The west, however, seems to have ruled out ground forces. The US enforced a no-fly-zone over northern Iraq that lasted ~12 years (1991 – 2003), so it does seem possible that our four experts are correct and Qaddafi will cling to reduced power for some time to come.
2. Which of these 5 top-grossing movies is most worth seeing?
Top scorers on this question:
Nat +2 points
Alex +2 points
UriBraun +2 points
Most of you (62%) forecast The Adjustment Bureau as the movie most worth seeing, and only 19% of you chose Rango. But, using our Bayesian Truth Serum algorithm, our top experts were those who chose Rango. And it seems that our experts got it right! 88% of critics gave Rango a positive review, compared to only 60% for The Adjustment Bureau, according to RottenTomatoes.com. Furthermore, Rango has brought in $15.1 MM at the box office so far, compared to only $5.8 MM for TAB.
3. Which of these medium-seeded basketball teams will get the farthest in the NCAA championship? UCLA, Temple, Washington, Texas A&M, George Mason.
This question is harder to analyze, because four of the five mid-ranked attained exactly one victory, and one team, Texas A&M, achieved none. Our experts were betting on Temple, but they lost to San Diego State in their second game by 7 points. So let’s scrap this question, since it doesn’t really tell us anything.
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